War, the Fed, and Reality

Over the past several weeks, one topic has understandably dominated conversations: the escalating conflict with Iran and what it means for markets. Taylor and I spent some time discussing this on our recent CYF podcast, and the conclusion we kept coming back to was simple: it matters—but not always in the way headlines suggest. 

At a high level, the economic impact of this conflict is flowing through one primary channel: energy. With tensions affecting key shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have risen, pushing gasoline higher and reintroducing inflation concerns. We’ve seen this before—not in exact form, but in pattern. And while markets often adapt, the longer disruptions persist—or if negotiations fail to produce a durable outcome—the more meaningful and lasting the impact can become, particularly through energy and a growing perception of policy uncertainty or inconsistency. 

Geopolitical shocks tend to create short-term volatility, narrative-driven decision-making, and a sense that “this time is different.” Sometimes it is. But more often, markets adjust faster than expected—and investors who react emotionally tend to do more harm than good.